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Labour markets 勞務(wù)市場(chǎng) Glad to be grey 長白頭發(fā)是好事情？ Older workers have fared unusually well since the financial crisis 自從2008年金融危機(jī)以來，年紀(jì)大的工人得到的待遇異乎尋常的優(yōu)厚 Jul 20th 2013 |From the print edition 1 THE recession of 2008-09 was remarkable in rich countries for its intensity, the subsequent recovery for its weakness. The labour market has also broken the rules, as new research from the OECD, a think-tank of mainly rich countries, shows in its annual Employment Outlook. 對(duì)于世界上的富國而言，2008年至2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退影響巨大。同時(shí)引起人們注意的是，危機(jī)過后這些國家的復(fù)蘇之路疲態(tài)盡顯。而OECD（經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與 發(fā)展組織，這一智庫主要是為發(fā)達(dá)國家的）年度《就業(yè)展望》（Employment Outlook）中的最新研究表明，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)也出現(xiàn)了反常的變化。 2 Young people always suffer in recessions. Employers stop hiring them; and they often get rid of new recruits because they are easier to sack. But in previous episodes, such as the recessions of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, older workers were also booted out. This time is different. During the financial crisis in 2008, and since, they have done better than other age groups. 一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退來襲，身處困境的總會(huì)有年輕人的身影。雇主不再繼續(xù)雇傭他們。因?yàn)槟贻p人解雇起來比較方便，所以老板經(jīng)常會(huì)先炒掉他們。不過即使如此，上世紀(jì) 70-90年代發(fā)生的歷次衰退中，年長的職員一般也很難獨(dú)善其身。然而這次情形有所不同。自從2008年金融危機(jī)以來，年長雇員相比其他年齡段的員工，受 到的沖擊則較為有限。  3 The researchers focus on movements in “non-employment” as a share of the total population in three age groups between the final quarters of 2007 and 2012. This measure has the advantage of including not just unemployment, where people are looking for work, but also inactivity, where people are not seeking jobs. Whereas the average non-employment rate in the OECD has risen by four percentage points among young people and by one-and-a-half points among 25- to 54-year-olds, it has fallen by two points among the 55-64 age group (see chart).研究人員將總?cè)丝趧澐至巳齻€(gè)年齡組，分別比較觀察了07年四季度至12年四季度，每組“無業(yè)人口”與各自人口總數(shù)的比例變化。研究“無業(yè)人口”的方法優(yōu)勢(shì) 在于其研究對(duì)象不僅包括失業(yè)人員，還包括沒有擇業(yè)行為的人。區(qū)別就在于前者正在找工作，后者沒有在找工作。OECD數(shù)據(jù)顯示，雖然青年平均無業(yè)人口比例上 漲4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，25-54歲人員上漲1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，但是55-64年齡段卻下降2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（見圖表）。 4 Why have older employees done so well? In some southern European countries they benefit from job protection not afforded to younger workers, but that did not really help them in past recessions. What has changed, says Stefano Scarpetta, head of the OECD’s employment directorate, is that firms now bear the full costs of getting rid of older staff. In the past early-retirement schemes provided by governments (in the mistaken belief that these would help young people) made it cheaper to push grey-haired workers out of the door. These have largely stopped. 年齡較大的工人表現(xiàn)優(yōu)良的原因在何處？在南歐的一些國家，年紀(jì)大的工人享有工作保障的福利，而年齡偏低工人則不包含在內(nèi)。不過在前幾次金融危機(jī)期間，工作 保障也沒有起多大的作用。斯特凡諾·斯卡爾佩塔——OECD就業(yè)事務(wù)總干事，他認(rèn)為造成前后迥異的原因在于如今的用人單位如果要辭退年齡大的員工，需要承 擔(dān)全部的費(fèi)用。過去政府制定的提前退休計(jì)劃中，把“送花白頭發(fā)工人出門”的成本的門檻定的很低。政府當(dāng)時(shí)錯(cuò)誤的認(rèn)為這樣會(huì)幫到年輕人就業(yè)，而如今這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃 已基本不再推行。 5 Job losses among older workers have also been more than offset by falls in inactivity, reflecting forces that were already apparent before the crisis. Older workers are healthier than they used to be and work is less physically demanding. They are also more attractive to employers than prior generations. Today’s 55- to 64-year-olds are the advance squad of the post-war baby-boomers who benefited from better education than their predecessors. 雖然年長工人丟掉工作的情況時(shí)有發(fā)生，但由于求職積極性上升，有工作的年長工人人數(shù)反而上升了，這反映出危機(jī)之前工人們已經(jīng)明顯地感覺到了壓力?，F(xiàn)代年齡 大的工人身體狀況較之于以往健康很多，而且工作對(duì)于人力需求也逐步下降。今天，55-64歲的工人算得上是二戰(zhàn)后“嬰兒潮”的先頭部隊(duì)，他們比前輩接受了 更好的教育。所以，與之前幾代人的相比，如今這類雇員更容易得到工作。 6 Older workers now have a sharper incentive to stay in employment because of the impact of the crisis on wealth. In Britain, for example, workers who rely on private pensions have been adversely affected by lower returns on their investments and by poor annuity rates when they convert their savings into regular income. 由于金融危機(jī)對(duì)財(cái)富的沖擊，年長工人繼續(xù)工作的目的性更加清晰了。比如在英國，首先是投資回報(bào)的減少，其次工人將養(yǎng)老賬戶余額轉(zhuǎn)為固定收入，年金利率慘不忍睹；工人們賴以維系的私人養(yǎng)老金因此受到極為不利的影響。 7 Many will argue that older workers have done better at the expense of the young. That view is wrongheaded. First, it is a fallacy that a job gained for one person is a job lost for another; there is no fixed “l(fā)ump of labour”. And second, as the report shows, young and old people are by and large not substitutes in the workplace. They do different types of work in different types of occupation: younger people gravitate to IT firms, for example, whereas older folk tend to be employed in more traditional industries. There are plenty of things that should be done to help the young jobless, but shunting older workers out of the workplace is not one of them. 或許有不少人認(rèn)為年齡大的工人做得比較好是以犧牲年輕人為代價(jià)換來的。這種觀點(diǎn)是不正確的。第一，認(rèn)為一個(gè)人上崗就意味著另一個(gè)人下崗，純屬謬誤；“勞動(dòng) 總數(shù)”并不是固定的。第二，據(jù)報(bào)道稱，在工作中年輕人和年長的人在大多數(shù)情況下并不是替換的關(guān)系。不同的工作崗位，給二者分配的任務(wù)也是不同的：舉個(gè)例 子，年輕人就比較青睞信息技術(shù)公司，而老一點(diǎn)的人就傾向于在較為傳統(tǒng)的工廠工作。當(dāng)然，幫助新人擺脫失業(yè)困境的方法有千千萬，但是把老人趕走絕不是其中之 一。 From the print edition: Finance and economics |
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