編者按：中國投資者對巴菲特以及其經典的投資心得耳熟能詳。但實際上，這個世界仍然有大量可以與巴菲特比肩的投資大師精心撰寫的投資心得，但多以英文或者其他語言撰寫，國內幾乎沒有介紹。格隆匯特意組織力量開始制作《精譯求精系列》，力求將這些含金量十足的大師心得，呈現(xiàn)在廣大會員眼前，體現(xiàn)他們的價值，為大家的投資，保駕護航。

 

本文的作者是美國知名對沖基金經理John Huber，最新發(fā)布的投資心得。文章主要討論了“再投資性護城河和傳統(tǒng)護城河的區(qū)別”。

TheReinvestment Moat

再投資護城河

Outstandingcompanies are often described as having a “moat”, a term popularized by WarrenBuffett where a durable competitive advantage enables a business to earn highreturns on capital for many years. These businesses are rare and form a smallgroup, however I bifurcate the group further into what I classify as “LegacyMoats” and “Reinvestment Moats”. I find that most businesses with a durablecompetitive advantage belong in the Legacy Moat bucket, meaning thecompanies earn strong returnson capital but do not have compelling opportunities to deploy incrementalcapital at similar rates.

杰出的公司經通常被認為有“護城河”。 “護城河”一詞的普及歸功于沃倫·巴菲特，意思是當一個企業(yè)擁有長期競爭優(yōu)勢時，它就能常年擁有較高的資本回報率。無論我對多少企業(yè)進行“傳統(tǒng)護城河”和“再投資護城河”的分類，“再投資護城河”企業(yè)都少之又少。我發(fā)現(xiàn)很多擁有長期競爭優(yōu)勢的企業(yè)都屬于“傳統(tǒng)護城河”企業(yè)，這意味著這些企業(yè)的資本回報率較高，但并沒有足夠的機會用同樣高的速率支配增量資本。

Thereis an even more elite category of quality businesses that I classify as havinga Reinvestment Moat. These businesses have all of the advantages of a LegacyMoat, but also have opportunitiesto deploy incremental capital at high rates. Businesses with longrunways of high-return investment opportunities can compound capital for longstretches, and a portfolio of these exceptional businesses is likely to produceyears of strong returns. It will take some work and a lot ofdiscipline to filter down to the true compounding machines, however I willoutline what factors to look for and how many of the “bargains” hide in plainsight.

一些高品質的精英企業(yè)擁有的是“再投資護城河”。這類企業(yè)擁有“傳統(tǒng)護城河”的所有優(yōu)勢，除此之外，它們還有充足機會以高速率支配增量資本。長期擁有高回報投資機會的企業(yè)能讓資本雪球越滾越大，它們的投資組合可能常年產生高回報。不過要想篩選出真正的復利工具并不是那么簡單，我會列出一些尋找的依據，然后看看有哪些顯而易見的“次品”藏了起來。

The“Legacy Moat”:

“傳統(tǒng)護城河”：

Businesseswith a Legacy Moat possess a solid competitive position that results in healthyprofits and strong returns on invested capital. In exceptional cases, a companywith a Legacy Moat employs no tangible capital and can modestly grow withoutrequiring additional capital. However because there are no reinvestment opportunities offeringthose same high returns, whatever cash the business generates needs to bedeployed elsewhere or shipped back to the owners.

有“傳統(tǒng)護城河”的企業(yè)擁有穩(wěn)固的競爭地位和穩(wěn)健的收益回報。在特殊情況下，一個擁有“傳統(tǒng)護城河”的公司并無有形資產可支配，它可以在不需要額外投資的前提下保持適度增長。但由于缺乏產生同樣高回報的再投資機會，企業(yè)的盈利都會被分配出去，或是返還給股權人。

Thinkof a self-storage facility in a rural town with a high occupancy rate andlittle competition. This location may be generating $200,000 of annual freecash flow, a solid yield on the $1,000,000 of capital used to build thefacility. As long as they run a tight operation, and a competing storagefacility doesn’t open across the street, the owner can be reasonably assuredthat the earnings power will persist or modestly grow over time.

假設有一個位于鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)的自動存儲倉，它的租用率很高，但競爭率很低。存儲倉每年可產生20萬美金的現(xiàn)金流，而建倉所用資金為100萬美金。只要緊密經營，且附近沒有新倉競爭，經營者大可確定倉位會持續(xù)盈利，并且利潤會逐步增長。

Butwhat does the owner do with the $200,000 that the operation generates eachyear? The town can’t really support another location, and nearby towns arealready serving the storage demand adequately. So maybe the owner invests it inanother private business, or puts it towards savings, or maybe buys a lakehouse. But wherever that capital goes, itlikely won’t be at the same 20% return earned on the initial facility.

經營者會把每年產生的20萬美金用于何處呢？小鎮(zhèn)沒有別的地方可以建倉了，而且附近的鎮(zhèn)子已經有了充足的倉位。所以該經營者會把錢投資到其它的私營企業(yè)里，或者直接存起來，再或者干脆買一棟房子。但是無論這筆現(xiàn)金流去什么地方，它都不太可能像原來一樣擁有20%的回報率了。

Thissame dilemma applies to many larger businesses such as Hershey’s, Coca-Cola,McDonald’s or Proctor & Gamble. These four companies on average distributed82.4% of their 2015 net income out to shareholders as dividends. For thesecompanies that decision makes sense, they do not have enough attractivereinvestment opportunities to justify retaining the capital.

很多大企業(yè)，如好時、可口可樂、麥當勞、寶潔，都面臨著相同的困境。2015年，這四家公司分發(fā)給股東的紅利平均占其凈利潤的82.4%。對這些公司來說，這個決定是講得通的，因為他們缺乏有吸引力的再投資機會來留住資本。

Eventhough these Legacy Moat businesses demonstrate high returns on investedcapital (ROIC), if you purchase their stock today and own it for ten years itis unlikely you as an investor will achieve exceptional returns. This is because their high ROICreflects returns on prior invested capital rather than incremental investedcapital. In other words, a 20% reported ROIC today is not worth as much toan investor if there are no more 20% ROIC opportunities available to direct theprofits. Equity ownership in these businessesends up resembling a high-yield bond with a coupon that should increase overtime. There is absolutely nothing wrong with this, businesses like Proctor& Gamble and Hershey’s provide a steady yield and are excellent at preserving capital but not necessarilyfor creating wealth. If you are looking to compound your capital atunusually high rates, the focus needs to shift to identifying businesses thatalso possess a “Reinvestment Moat”.

雖然這些“傳統(tǒng)護城河”企業(yè)有高資本回報率，但是如果你現(xiàn)在買入它們的股票，十年之后，作為投資者的你是不太可能得到高回報的。這是因為資本回報率反映的是之前投資資本的回報，而不是增量投資資本的回報。換而言之，對于投資者而言，如果沒有更多回報率達20%的投資機會來產生利潤，這20%的資本回報實際上并不值這么多。最終，這類企業(yè)的股東權益都跟利率逐年增長的高收益?zhèn)芟瘛?strong>這絕對沒有什么不好的，像寶潔、好時這樣的企業(yè)就在保持資本方面做得很好，但是在創(chuàng)造財富方面就欠缺了。如果你希望以極高的利率復合資本，那么你的關注點最好轉移到尋找“再投資護城河”企業(yè)上。

The“Reinvestment Moat”:

“再投資護城河”

Thereis a second group of companies that have all the benefits of a Legacy Moat, butalso have opportunities todeploy incremental capital at high rates because they have aReinvestment Moat. These companies have their current profits protected by aLegacy Moat, so the core earnings power should be maintained. But instead ofshipping the earnings back to the owner at the end of each year, the vastmajority of the capital will be retained and deployed into opportunities thatstand a high likelihood of producing high returns.

第二類公司擁有“傳統(tǒng)護城河”公司所有的優(yōu)勢，除此之外，由于“再投資護城河”的存在，這類公司還擁有用高回報率進行增量投資的機會?！皞鹘y(tǒng)護城河”保護著這類公司的當前利潤， 所以其核心盈利能力得以持續(xù)。但這類公司并不會在年末將收益返還給股東，相反，它們會將一大部分盈利再投入到可能產生高回報的投資機會中去。

Thinkof Wal-Mart in 1972. There were 51 locations open at the time and the overallbusiness generated a 52% pre-tax return on net tangible assets. Clearly theirearly stores were working, they dominated small towns with a differentiatedformat and a fanatical devotion to low prices. Within the 51 towns, I would betthat each store had a moat and Sam Walton could be reasonably assured theearnings power would hold steady or grow over time. Mr. Walton also had apretty simple job when it came to deploying the cash those stores generatedeach year. The clear path was to reinvest the earnings right back into openingmore Wal-Marts for as long as possible. Today there are over 11,000 Wal-Martlocations throughout the world and both sales and net income are up over 5,000x from1972 levels.

1972的沃爾瑪就是這樣。當時沃爾瑪一共在51個地方開店，就其整體業(yè)務而言，沃爾瑪的凈有形資產的稅前收益率為52%。很顯然，沃爾瑪在早期是盈利的，它用與眾不同的經營模式和超低價格占領了小城鎮(zhèn)市場。在那51個城鎮(zhèn)里面，我敢肯定每家沃爾瑪超市都有一個護城河，山姆·沃爾頓可以合理地認定沃爾瑪的盈利能力可以持續(xù)穩(wěn)健地增長。至于如何分配沃爾瑪每年產生的現(xiàn)金，這對于沃爾頓先生來說就是小事一樁了。很顯然，正確的做法是把盈利進行再投資，繼續(xù)開更多的沃爾瑪超市?，F(xiàn)在沃爾瑪在全世界一共開了1,1000家店，銷售和凈收入較1972年上漲了5000倍。

How ToIdentify a Reinvestment Moat:

如何分辨再投資護城河：

Whensearching for a Reinvestment Moat, I’m essentially looking for a business thatdefies capitalism. Isolated profits in a small market is one thing, butcontinuing to achieve high returns on incremental dollars for years should intheory not be attainable. As a business gets bigger, and the profits becomemore meaningful, it will attract more and more competition and returns shouldeventually compress. Instead I’m looking for a business that actually becomes stronger as it getsbigger. In my opinion there are two models that lend itself to thiskind of positive reinforcement cycle over time: companies with low cost production or scale advantages andcompanies with a two-sided networkeffect.

在搜索再投資護城河的時候，我其實是在尋找蔑視資本主義的企業(yè)。在一個小市場取得單比利潤是一回事，但想持續(xù)多年取得增量資本的高回報來在理論上無法實現(xiàn)的。當企業(yè)規(guī)模越來越大、其利潤變得更加有意義時，它會吸引越來越多的競爭，而收益最終會被壓縮。相反，我想尋找的是隨著規(guī)模擴大而變得更強大的企業(yè)。在我看來，適應這種積極的強化循環(huán)的企業(yè)模式有兩種：有低生產成本和規(guī)模效應的企業(yè)，有雙面網絡效應的企業(yè)。